If You're Sure How the Next Four Years Will Play Out, I Promise: You're Wrong

Ari Leal, Therapist

In a world where the recent election may have left many of us reeling with emotions like confusion, anger, frustration, and disappointment, it's natural to want a sense of clarity and control over what comes next. These feelings often lead us to predict the future, leaning into a desire for certainty. Yet, as history and psychology reveal, our visions of the future are usually clouded by bias and anxiety. This tendency is not just limited to the average person; even seasoned experts frequently misjudge large-scale outcomes.

Why Predicting the Future Is So Tricky

As humans, we have a unique ability to envision an unknown future. But the flip side is that we are surprisingly poor at making accurate predictions. We often misjudge our future career paths, life partners, and even where we'll live. Regarding world events, our ability to foresee outcomes is even more limited.

Psychologist Philip Tetlock's groundbreaking research showed that even the most trained experts, with all their data and insights, were no better at predicting future events than chance. Our inability to account for the many "butterfly effects"—small events with massive consequences—is a fundamental obstacle to accurate forecasting. Take, for instance, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand; a simple wrong turn set the stage for World War I, a historical shock that no one could have seen coming.

The danger in convincing ourselves that we know what's next is amplified in times of stress and uncertainty. We are more susceptible to viewing our current feelings as forecasts of a similar, inevitable future.

Lessons from History: Things Aren't Always What They Seem

History teaches us that significant events rarely unfold in predictable patterns. After World War I, the Treaty of Versailles was celebrated by the Allies, who believed peace was here to stay; they couldn't foresee that the treaty would foster the conditions for World War II. Similarly, the political shifts in 2008 and 2020 highlight how triumphant outcomes for one party can lay the groundwork for unexpected consequences in the next.

Imagining what might have happened if different leaders had been elected is a mental exercise that can feel powerful but is often futile. There's no way to know how an alternate reality would have unfolded. Acknowledging this uncertainty can be a profound source of comfort and humility. Our world's complex, chaotic nature means that events are shaped by countless unseen factors, making it almost impossible to predict the next turn accurately.

The Psychological Cost of Ambiguous Loss

Much like other unanticipated losses, political defeats bring about what psychologists call "ambiguous loss." This loss is marked by the mourning of dreams rather than people, creating a unique blend of sorrow and frustration that can feel like a heavy burden. However, unlike human loss, our plans and hopes are not bound to a fixed ending. They can be resurrected, reimagined, and redirected into new forms.

Over time, as studies have shown, people have a remarkable ability to move forward from intense political disappointment. Supporters of various political candidates experience distress at the moment of loss, yet just days or weeks later, most begin to stabilize emotionally. While we might initially feel devastated by the failure of our aspirations, we eventually adapt, sometimes even finding strength and renewed determination in our disappointment.

The Role of Negative Thinking Patterns

Our predictions often stem from cognitive distortions—patterns of faulty thinking that distort our perception. Key negative thinking styles that may arise during uncertain times include:
                  1. Fortune Telling: We predict an unfavorable outcome with confidence. For instance, after an election, we might think, "This administration will ruin everything important to me." Fortune telling focuses on a single, unchangeable future, creating anxiety over something that hasn't happened and may never happen.
                  2. Catastrophizing: This is when we imagine the worst possible scenario. It's easy to slip into thoughts like, "Our democracy is doomed" or, "This will have disastrous effects." Catastrophizing amplifies worry, as it's often centered on an unrealistic, overly dire outcome.
                  3. Black-and-White Thinking: This distortion leads us to see events in extremes. We may think, "If my preferred candidate doesn't win, the entire country will suffer irreparable damage." This leaves little room for nuance and makes it harder to consider alternative, positive possibilities.
                  4. Overgeneralization: This involves making sweeping conclusions based on a single event. After a political loss, we might think, "Nothing good ever happens in politics; it's all hopeless." Such a view limits our ability to see positive change over time.

Challenging and Rewriting Negative Scripts

Awareness of these negative thinking patterns can be empowering, as it's the first step toward challenging them. Here are some therapeutic ways to reframe and challenge these distortions:
                  1. Examine the Evidence: Reflect on past experiences to evaluate the accuracy of your pessimistic predictions. Ask yourself, "Has everything turned out as poorly as I imagined in the past?" Often, the answer is no, which can remind us that our worst fears rarely come true.
                  2. Consider Alternative Outcomes: Practice envisioning different, more neutral, or positive futures. Instead of focusing on a specific, catastrophic scenario, remind yourself that the future is open and holds many possibilities, some of which could be favorable.
                  3. Use "Both-And" Thinking: Allow room for multiple outcomes and perspectives. For example, you could think, "This election result is disappointing, and good things might come out of it, too." Embracing both sides acknowledges pain without shutting out hope.
                  4. Practice Self-Compassion: Remember that uncertainty is part of being human. Embrace the difficulty of not knowing, allowing yourself to experience emotions without letting them define your sense of reality. Practicing mindfulness can also ground you in the present moment and help you release feelings of distress.
                  5. Focus on Actionable Steps: Instead of ruminating on worst-case scenarios, consider small, meaningful actions to respond to the situation. For example, if you're upset about the outcome of an election, consider getting involved with a cause that aligns with your values. This shifts your focus from helplessness to empowerment.

Moving Forward with Uncertainty

While it's hard to let go of the need to predict, embracing the uncertainty of the future can bring freedom. Accepting that we don't know what will happen next opens the door to adaptability and resilience. As with any ambiguous loss, it's less about moving on than moving forward—finding meaning in our experiences and channeling our emotions toward constructive change.

In the words of author Nora McInerny, "We don't move on from grief. We move forward with it." The same holds for political disappointment, frustration, and fear. Instead of feeling paralyzed by a bleak future, embrace the fact that fortune can shift as quickly as our outlook and that our responses to uncertainty can shape a future we're proud to be a part of.

Book with Ari Leal here: https://SouthTampaTherapyBOOKAPPT.as.me/AriLeal